9.12.2004
Ali comments in shadow of today's violence
Iraq the Model has always been a clear window into the mindset of freedom-loving Iraq. Today's spate of violence in inner Baghdad has been, shall we say, intense. Ali has a lengthy piece concerning it, which is worth the read.
He, and his brothers are realists, and do not minimize the chaotic efforts of the 'resistance' there. However, they are pragmatists with a clear vision of the possibilities of the future in which there is a free Iraq.
Most of the arab and Muslim government were against toppling Saddam, and that was certainly not because they liked him or his regime. They were afraid and still are of the consequences of this regime change in Iraq. They tried their best to prevent it by diplomatic ways and they made it easy for fighters from different places to go to Iraq through their borders, but that was not enough. After the regime fall, they were waiting for Iraqi resistance to start and make Iraq a hell for Americans. Days and weeks passed without a single resisting act. After Baghdad’s liberation most of the governerates surrendered with their troops not even engaged in a battle no matter how small. That was more than what Arab rulers could take; an “Arab Muslim” country being invaded and the regime being changed without the people putting an effort to resist it? What should this mean? That Iraqis wanted the change? This could give really insane thoughts to Arabs and Muslims anywhere who didn’t like their governments, and many of these are not much better than Saddam’s regime.
It’s as simple as that; there was no resistance but there should’ve been one, so the Iraqi resistance was ‘invented’.
. . . .
When Sadr joined the ‘resistance’ it gained an Iraqi ‘face’ in the eyes of some Iraqis and many Arabs and westerns, thus it was unwise to smear this image with suicide attacks that have only resulted in Iraqis getting more united but not against the American, it made them more united against terrorism. The minds behind the “resistance” decided that suicide attacks should stop, and they only resumed when Sadr went silent and was not doing his job, simply because they had no other option. The march towards democracy should be stopped and Iraq must be destroyed; at the hands of Iraqis if possible but if not then by any means.
It happened twice till now. When Sadr revolt suicide attacks stop and when Sadr stops suicide attacks resume. The only two suicide attacks that were carried during this period was soon after a peace agreement was reached and when clashes broke up again they stopped. I think that when the Mehdi militia issue will be settled, we will witness again another horrible series of suicide attacks. This whole theory depends on assuming that the relation between the “resistance” and its supporters is much stronger than it looks. The people who support the “resistance” finance it and thus can dictate to a considerable extent its strategy.
There is however another factor *this time* that will have an influence on this from now on. It’s the American’s elections and their effect on the Iraqi issue. I don’t think there are plans for a terrorist attack on America, because they ( the enemies of America’s plans in Iraq) know this will further increase the support for Bush, while killing Iraqis will probably enhance the American support for Iraqis, but killing Americans will promote different emotions and I expect that we’ll see more frequent attacks on Americans in Iraq from now till the election time. This can be seen in today’s attacks for instance, as although there were civilian casualties, it was very obvious that the main target was the American soldiers unlike what happened before when the terrorists openly targeted Iraqis whether in mosques, churches, police stations or training centers for ING.
Most people supporting the resistance think that if Kerry wins he will pull the troops out of Iraq, or that’s what they wish. They know that the decisive factor in this is the American’s casualty, and that shifts their priorities now. They are betting that if they can inflict more losses among American soldiers, American public opinion will favor getting out of Iraq soon and will vote for John Kerry because they (Americans) probably think that too, and that with such public pressure he would find himself more committed to promises he never even made, but gave some impression that he’s at least considering it. The assumption that Americans would pull out of Iraq if they receive heavy casualties is an old one that had stopped looking possible for quite a time, but now with the strong coverage by the media for the losses in Iraq and with the figure 1000 coming up every now and then together with unclear messages from the Kerry camp, the theory has been revived. The bottom line is that with Kerry they think they have a chance but with Bush there is none.
. . . .
We understand perfectly that sacrificing lives and hard earned money for the sake of others (although there IS a personal interest here but it maybe not so clear) is a very difficult thing to do, and we know that it’s too much to ask, but tens of Millions of oppressed people around the world with brutal sadistic regimes laying their heave boots on their chests preventing them from even breathing freely, not to mention speaking out or doing something about it, all these people have no one else but you, Americans, to turn to. You are our/their only hope.
Thank you, Ali, for this cogent assessment of the pain and dispair our sister country of Iraq is passing through.
He, and his brothers are realists, and do not minimize the chaotic efforts of the 'resistance' there. However, they are pragmatists with a clear vision of the possibilities of the future in which there is a free Iraq.
Most of the arab and Muslim government were against toppling Saddam, and that was certainly not because they liked him or his regime. They were afraid and still are of the consequences of this regime change in Iraq. They tried their best to prevent it by diplomatic ways and they made it easy for fighters from different places to go to Iraq through their borders, but that was not enough. After the regime fall, they were waiting for Iraqi resistance to start and make Iraq a hell for Americans. Days and weeks passed without a single resisting act. After Baghdad’s liberation most of the governerates surrendered with their troops not even engaged in a battle no matter how small. That was more than what Arab rulers could take; an “Arab Muslim” country being invaded and the regime being changed without the people putting an effort to resist it? What should this mean? That Iraqis wanted the change? This could give really insane thoughts to Arabs and Muslims anywhere who didn’t like their governments, and many of these are not much better than Saddam’s regime.
It’s as simple as that; there was no resistance but there should’ve been one, so the Iraqi resistance was ‘invented’.
. . . .
When Sadr joined the ‘resistance’ it gained an Iraqi ‘face’ in the eyes of some Iraqis and many Arabs and westerns, thus it was unwise to smear this image with suicide attacks that have only resulted in Iraqis getting more united but not against the American, it made them more united against terrorism. The minds behind the “resistance” decided that suicide attacks should stop, and they only resumed when Sadr went silent and was not doing his job, simply because they had no other option. The march towards democracy should be stopped and Iraq must be destroyed; at the hands of Iraqis if possible but if not then by any means.
It happened twice till now. When Sadr revolt suicide attacks stop and when Sadr stops suicide attacks resume. The only two suicide attacks that were carried during this period was soon after a peace agreement was reached and when clashes broke up again they stopped. I think that when the Mehdi militia issue will be settled, we will witness again another horrible series of suicide attacks. This whole theory depends on assuming that the relation between the “resistance” and its supporters is much stronger than it looks. The people who support the “resistance” finance it and thus can dictate to a considerable extent its strategy.
There is however another factor *this time* that will have an influence on this from now on. It’s the American’s elections and their effect on the Iraqi issue. I don’t think there are plans for a terrorist attack on America, because they ( the enemies of America’s plans in Iraq) know this will further increase the support for Bush, while killing Iraqis will probably enhance the American support for Iraqis, but killing Americans will promote different emotions and I expect that we’ll see more frequent attacks on Americans in Iraq from now till the election time. This can be seen in today’s attacks for instance, as although there were civilian casualties, it was very obvious that the main target was the American soldiers unlike what happened before when the terrorists openly targeted Iraqis whether in mosques, churches, police stations or training centers for ING.
Most people supporting the resistance think that if Kerry wins he will pull the troops out of Iraq, or that’s what they wish. They know that the decisive factor in this is the American’s casualty, and that shifts their priorities now. They are betting that if they can inflict more losses among American soldiers, American public opinion will favor getting out of Iraq soon and will vote for John Kerry because they (Americans) probably think that too, and that with such public pressure he would find himself more committed to promises he never even made, but gave some impression that he’s at least considering it. The assumption that Americans would pull out of Iraq if they receive heavy casualties is an old one that had stopped looking possible for quite a time, but now with the strong coverage by the media for the losses in Iraq and with the figure 1000 coming up every now and then together with unclear messages from the Kerry camp, the theory has been revived. The bottom line is that with Kerry they think they have a chance but with Bush there is none.
. . . .
We understand perfectly that sacrificing lives and hard earned money for the sake of others (although there IS a personal interest here but it maybe not so clear) is a very difficult thing to do, and we know that it’s too much to ask, but tens of Millions of oppressed people around the world with brutal sadistic regimes laying their heave boots on their chests preventing them from even breathing freely, not to mention speaking out or doing something about it, all these people have no one else but you, Americans, to turn to. You are our/their only hope.
Thank you, Ali, for this cogent assessment of the pain and dispair our sister country of Iraq is passing through.
// posted by HunterByrd @ 6:55 PM 
