9.06.2004

More bad data for Dems

A CNN/USA Today/Gallop poll released today gives Bush a 52%-45% edge over Kerry. The poll was taken from a sampling of likely voters.

Notably, this is the first time Bush has had a lead over Kerry beyond the poll's margin of error since Kerry's surprise victory in the Iowa caucuses propelled him to his party's nomination.

Bush's two-point convention bounce is one of the smallest registered in Gallup polling history, along with Hubert Humphrey's two-point bounce following the 1968 Democratic convention, George McGovern's zero-point bounce following the 1972 Democratic convention, and Kerry's "negative bounce" of one point among registered voters earlier this year. Bush's bounce is the smallest an incumbent president has received.

That last sentence sounds tailor-made to the cocoon spin coming from NPR this morning.

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