10.18.2004

The depressing of the 'Eurozone'

The European Central Bank has rigidified the various European Union states. So reads an opinion by George Trefgarne in The Daily Telegraph. The piece centers mainly upon the piling woes of Italy, with its shabby, deficit-ridden economy. But there is plenty of misery to go round.

Unlike in Britain, where growth, though slowing, is likely to be 3.5 per cent this year, the Italian economy is crawling along, as are those of France and Germany. Italy has the lowest birth rate of any advanced nation, and debts three times those of Britain.

This year, according to the IMF, the Italian economy will grow at a paltry 1.4 per cent, followed by two per cent in 2005. Even those numbers could be overestimates. Since the IMF made its forecasts last month, the price of oil has shot above $50 a barrel, raising costs for the world economy generally.

* * * *

The euro might not be the cause of Italy's woes, but it is blocking the exit route. The European Central Bank cannot cut interest rates, because it must set them for the entire eurozone, and inflation is relatively high in Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Restrained by the ECB's straitjacket, Italy and co have resorted to ripping up its fiscal discipline. The only hope now is that the eurozone adopts a new set of rules, perhaps based on those developed here by Gordon Brown.

Gradually, the architects of the euro are beginning to realise the flaws in the single currency. In its autumn report, the European Forecasting Network, an official EU body, said it did not believe Europe's economic decline was stopping or turning around, and bemoaned the fact that there was no evidence that the euro had improved competitiveness.

Our European friends are in a pickle yet. Their drive to 'unite overnite' - so as to rival and exceed the economic might of America - has proven not so easy to accomplish.

Comments:
Rick Steves is an idiot. Americans are spoiled? Who is it that gets 4-6 weeks of state-mandated paid vacation per year, not to mention, in some European countries, a 35 hour work week? Wouldn't they actually be more accurately referred to as "spoiled?" Europeans have hated us for many decades and its not hard to find lots of examples. Their only hope is to follow the lead of the "new" european countries like Poland (who, by the way, likes us because they know we saved them from the Soviets) and embrace capitalism enthusiastically.

The Euros and their economy are, to put it bluntly, screwed. They have cheerfully handed out more and more generous social program benefits over the past 50 years, largely due to the fact that American taxpayers were providing their military defense needs free of charge, permitting their governments to afford those handouts, and the citizenry is now going collectively nuts over the prospect that these benefits (that's "entitlements" for you folks reading this stateside) MUST be cut back in order to confront undeniable economic realities such as those discussed in this article. Schroder is about to pay the political price for facing this very reality. A lot of European politicians are about the pay a similar price in the next few years. Somewhere in heaven, Hayek is doubled over with laughter.
 
First off all Rick Steves is right on some points. Anonymous isn't.

- Americans are spoiled? Who is it that gets 4-6 weeks of state-mandated paid vacation per year, not to mention, in some European countries, a 35 hour work week? Wouldn't they actually be more accurately referred to as "spoiled?"

Yes certainly, Spoiled in my point of view, materialistically spoiled. How much do you care about the well being of the world? Kyoto? Never heard of? There is a huge gap between Europe and the USA. You can call it an ocean. But that's to easy. It's the attitude to life. In Europe we're living more on a basis of personal growth. Not material growth. We aren't lived bij economic figures.

- Europeans have hated us for many decades and its not hard to find lots of examples.

You have to learn the difference between hate and dislike. Why do you name none of those examples?

- Their only hope is to follow the lead of the "new" european countries like Poland (who, by the way, likes us because they know we saved them from the Soviets) and embrace capitalism enthusiastically.

I beg you pardon, East Germany had elections some weeks ago, do you know the results? Who is it you think who tries to get the people of former Eastern Europe

The Euros and their economy are, to put it bluntly, screwed.
They have cheerfully handed out more and more generous social program benefits over the past 50 years, largely due to the fact that American taxpayers were providing their military defense needs free of charge, permitting their governments to afford those handouts,

I know that you wanted to keep the Russians out. But you should better fight in the pacific if there should be any war. Okay the Marshall help after the 2nd World War was needed very much. The economy was down and needed an impuls. My grandparants were thankfull but the next generations don't owe you thank you's. No way! In staed of that you should come to Europe and experience the European and/or Dutch way of living. So completely different.

- and the citizenry is now going collectively nuts over the prospect that these benefits (that's "entitlements" for you folks reading this stateside) MUST be cut back in order to confront undeniable economic realities such as those discussed in this article.

To keep our economy sound we surely have to cut our public spending, that's true, but you are not aware of the Dutch situation. That has nothing to do with the fact America paid for defense. Did you ever hear of the Dutch Disease.
Also the debt of the whole EU is nothing comared with US debt. Mainly you live on deficits, for a conservative that should be a crime because even your great grand-children will feel the pain of paying back that deficit. How do you deal with that problem?

- Schroder is about to pay the political price for facing this very reality. A lot of European politicians are about the pay a similar price in the next few years.

You know what happenend in 1989 when the Berlin Wall fell? The East German people were enthusiastic about the Wiedervereinigung. They had certain expectations.After 15 years Kohl and Gerhard Schröder can't make that expectations come true. Instead there are a deficits on certain areas. Unemployment makes it worse for people in east Germany. that is the political price G.S. pays.
 
- Americans are spoiled?

Yes certainly, Spoiled in my point of view, materialistically spoiled. How much do you care about the well being of the world? Kyoto? Never heard of? There is a huge gap between Europe and the USA. You can call it an ocean. But that's to easy. It's the attitude to life. In Europe we're living more on a basis of personal growth. Not material growth. We aren't lived bij economic figures.

- Who is it that gets 4-6 weeks of state-mandated paid vacation per year, not to mention, in some European countries, a 35 hour work week? Wouldn't they actually be more accurately referred to as "spoiled?"

4-6 weeks vacation, oh yes I know what you mean. I get 24 days. But my salary is much lower than in a compared profession in the USA. We pay an enormous part of our wages to social benefits.
Something that differs from the USA.

- Europeans have hated us for many decades and its not hard to find lots of examples.

You have to learn the difference between hate and dislike. Why do you name none of those examples?

- Their only hope is to follow the lead of the "new" european countries like Poland (who, by the way, likes us because they know we saved them from the Soviets) and embrace capitalism enthusiastically.

I beg you pardon, East Germany had elections some weeks ago, do you know the results? Who is it you think who tries to get the people of former Eastern Europe involved in the EU. Don't you think capitalism has also bad results?Here capitalism isn't holy.

- The Euros and their economy are, to put it bluntly, screwed.
They have cheerfully handed out more and more generous social program benefits over the past 50 years, largely due to the fact that American taxpayers were providing their military defense needs free of charge, permitting their governments to afford those handouts,

I know that you wanted to keep the Russians out. But you should better fight in the pacific if there should be any war. Okay the Marshall help after the 2nd World War was needed very much. The economy was down and needed an impuls. My grandparants were thankfull but the next generations don't owe you thank you's. No way! In staed of that you should come to Europe and experience the European and/or Dutch way of living. So completely different.

- and the citizenry is now going collectively nuts over the prospect that these benefits (that's "entitlements" for you folks reading this stateside) MUST be cut back in order to confront undeniable economic realities such as those discussed in this article.

To keep our economy sound we surely have to cut our public spending, that's true, but you are not aware of the Dutch situation. That has nothing to do with the fact America paid for defense. Did you ever hear of the Dutch Disease.
It seems that the social epenses explode when one nation hits a natural gas reserve. That expansion has to be cut.

Also the debt of the whole EU is nothing compared with US debt. Mainly you live on deficits, for a conservative that should be a crime because even your great grand-children will feel the pain of paying back that deficit. How do you deal with that problem?

- Schroder is about to pay the political price for facing this very reality. A lot of European politicians are about the pay a similar price in the next few years.

You know what happenend in 1989 when the Berlin Wall fell? The East German people were enthusiastic about the Wiedervereinigung. They had certain expectations.After 15 years Kohl and Gerhard Schröder can't make that expectations come true. Instead there are a deficits on certain areas. Unemployment makes it worse for people in east Germany. that is the political price G.S. pays.
 
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
 
Well, Jan, I'm glad you showed up to voice your opinion. I can't tell whether you are bragging about, or complaining about, how things are in Europe. You seem to want more vacation than the mere 24 days you receive now, yet you also seem unhappy that so much of your wages are taken in taxes to finance social programs. At times, I would swear you are a conservative, at other times I am not sure.

Look, obviously it is hyperbole to say that all Europeans hate Americans. But all you have to do is read the major German newspapers, or the major French newspapers to see a very strong anti-american bias in Europe. That is not to say that you cannot find some pro-american news media in Europe, but you would have to admit that they are a very very small minority. I won't quibble over the difference between hate and dislike -- sometimes these two emotions are closer than other times. But if you read what the European leaders had to say about Woodrow Wilson and the United States after World War I, for example, you can easily see that anti-americanism is nothing new in Europe.

As for the European "way of life" you talk about, Europeans are free to live life in whatever way you like. It really doesn't matter to Americans how Europeans live their lives --whether materialistically, spiritually, or whatever. We honestly don't care. The post that led to my comments, however, addressed the economic situation in Europe, and the prospects for the future of the European economy. And you and I both know that if the European economy fails, you will not have the choice of choosing to live a non-materialistic life --it will be forced upon you. Will you still be bragging about the European lifestyle when you don't have food to eat? Will you still be living a "spiritual" life when you are living in a cardboard box under some bridge? You may think I am exxagerating, but the unemployment rate in some European countries exceeds 10% right now. What will those people do if their countries are suddenly unable to pay them their monthly welfare payments?

You seem to agree that Europe needs to cut back their social programs, so I think we are on the same page on this point. I think you would also agree that cutting back these social programs will be very difficult and painful. The labor unions will fight reform with all their strength.

And, by the way, it is nice of you to mention that, at least your parents were grateful for the Marshall Plan, although I don't understand why children of those parents, like yourself, can't find a little bit of gratitude as well. Without that Marshall Plan food and aid given to your parents or grandparents, where do you think you would really be today? Can you honestly say that you are not better off because we fed your parents?

As for the Kyoto treaty, do you know how many European counties will meet the goals set in that treaty? Do some research and let me know. The last article I read in the Economist said that NONE of the European signatories would be able to meet the goals set in that treaty.

As for the deficit in the United States, that is indeed a concern, and it must be addressed, but it is managable because our economy is growing, our unemployment is low, and our productivity is MUCH higher than European productivity. So worry about your own economy and let us take care of ours.

Look, I like Europe, and I like Europeans, at least MOST of the ones I have met. So the main point of all of this is that you folks need to get your economic act together or else you will be in for some very hard times. And if you don't, this time the Good Old USA may not be there with yet another Marshall Plan to bail you out.

Good Luck, My Friend!
 
Moomont, Anon, and Jan - all of your comments are indicative of the divide, and I am given much to ponder. Have to say though, Anonymous, you are well-grounded in your opinions.
 
Mr. Byrd, Erin, Anon, and Jan, I enjoyed your free flow.

Ferd
 
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