10.02.2004

Kerry 47-Bush 45

The new polls are coming in. Was I wrong about a 1-point bump for Kerry? I didn't say 'when', did I? Keep watching, and thinking.

UPDATE: A reader at Power Line found the demographic composition of this poll.
Newsweek's most recent poll included 345 Republicans, 364 Democrats and 278 independents. This compares to Newsweek's published data for their most recent prior poll, which showed President Bush with a comfortable lead: 391 Republicans,300 Democrats and 270 independents. Yes, if you drop 46 Republicans and add 64 Democrats, you will get considerably better results for the Democratic nominee. This is a good reminder of why poll data always need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially until you see the underlying data.


Comments:
Mr. Byrd,

An e-mail I received from a friend. Do you have any thoughts? I have referred him to your blog so I hope you can take a moment to respond. Thanks.

Oh yes, his e-mail:

the following is an article from Bush's hometown newspaper in Texas. The paper endorsed Bush in 2000, thinks he's done a terrible job and is endorsing Kerry for the 2004 election. Give me some ammo re the article's points. The article also criticized Bush's plundering of the Social Security Trust and, by so doing, increasing the deficit to the highest level ever, and his stated plan to privatize Social Security.

The main points of the article's criticism were:

1. Empty the Social Security trust fund by $507 billion to help offset fiscal irresponsibility and at the same time slash Social Security benefits.
2. Cut Medicare by 17 percent and reduce veterans' benefits and military pay.
3. Eliminate overtime pay for millions of Americans and raise oil prices by 50 percent.
4. Give tax cuts to businesses that sent American jobs overseas, and, in fact, by policy encourage their departure.
5. Give away billions of tax dollars in government contracts without competitive bids.
6. Involve this country in a deadly and highly questionable war, and
7. Take a budget surplus and turn it into the worst deficit in the history of the United States, creating a debt in just four years that will take generations to repay.

The publishers of the Iconoclast differ with Bush on other issues, including the denial of stem cell research, shortchanging veterans' entitlements, cutting school programs and grants, dictating what our children learn through a thought-controlling content from Washington rather than allowing local school boards and parents to decide how young people should be taught, ignoring the environment, and creating extraneous language in the Patriot Act that removes some of the very freedoms that our founding fathers and generations of soldiers fought so hard to preserve.
We are concerned about the vast exportation of jobs to other countries, due in large part to policies carried out by Bush appointees. Funds previously geared at retention of small companies are being given to larger concerns, such as Halliburton-like companies with strong ties to oil and gas. Job training has been cut every year that Bush has resided at the White House.
Then there is his resolve to inadequately finance Homeland Security and to cut the Community Oriented Policing Program (COPS) by 94 percent, to reduce money for rural development, to slash appropriations for the Small Business Administration, and to under-fund veterans' programs.
Likewise troubling is that President Bush fought against the creation of the 9/11 Commission and is yet to embrace its recommendations.
Vice President Cheney's Halliburton has been awarded multi-billion-dollar contracts without undergoing any meaningful bid process, an enormous conflict of interest, plus the company has been significantly raiding the funds of Export-Import Bank of America, reducing investment that could have gone toward small business trade.


Yes, you have become my political mentor. It's a tough job, but somebody's got to do it.
 
Holy heavens to Betsy, anonymous! I appreciate your opinion of my 'mentoring' skills, but I'm not the sort of expert to take down the entire leftist platform in one swipe! Is there a thing that the editor and publisher of the mighty Lonestar Iconoclast did not cover in his damnation of a famous neighbor?

The Lonestar Iconoclast...belongs right up there with USAToday and NYT.

Let's give this a quick go. No facts here, just anecdote and utilization of sometimes feeble knowledge.

1. Kill the Social Security Trust Fund. First, there is no "trust fund" per se. Never has been one. It is a way politicians use to make the public believe all of the money taken from their check stays John Q Public's own money. It goes into the general fund. That little fact is not good for any of us. So they're mad that W wants to do what? Essentially, permit 1-2% of the total SS deduction to be invested by the worker for the worker. It's called 'personal control'! I'm for it!

2. Cut Medicare by 17%. I can't answer this without research. I highly doubt it, though. I also doubt that the president would ever, ever, cut Veteran's benefits and military pay. All three issues sound like this political play on words: Often the dems will decry 'cuts!', when in reality what has really been proposed is that the amount of increase (in future years) has been trimmed. Yes...an often used ploy in the Dem Playbook. Anyway...tell your friend to show YOU some facts...not just give you a copy of a small town editorial as if it were gospel.

4. Eliminate OT pay. It's not that simple. It has to do with updated regulations which were severely out of date. I would have to research...I've only heard about it like you. As far as W raising oil prices...that's a hoot...just two years ago, they said we were taking Iraq's oil fields so we could have cheap gas. I'm afraid the price of a gallon of gas is way beyond W.

5. Give away billions of tax dollars on non-competitive bids. First, the US doesn't give away a red cent. Second, how many company's do you know of capable of doing what...yes, Haliburton does. The company is highly specialized in the construction and logistics field. In addition to their own work, they also act a manager to an near infinite level of smaller contractors. The truth is, very few other companies in the world can do what Haliburton does. The other companies are very likely found in ... France. That wasn't about to happen. Ask your friend who else wanted the work. That's the question to ask. Also ask them which contracts their talking about. If they can't answer, just smile.

I'll pass on the war, since we all talk about it to the ends of the earth.

6. The budget deficit. Oh, it's bad...it's huge...it's catastrophic...it will keep food out of my great grandchildren's mouth...it's the end of the world as we know it. Look, I well remember (and you might, too) about the political talk the last time we were dealing with a deficit...back in the early 90's. The deficit then was huge! It was the exact line of rhetoric and fear-mongering you hear now. Statisticians and actuarials had the deficit forecast 30 years into the future and then...the economy kept getting better...and the deficit vanished! It was gone! So I'm never worrying about the deficit again. If I were an economist I could tell you why. It's bad now, because of the sudden and terrible shock our economy suffered on 9/11.

Cheers
 
Thanks Mr. Byrd.

Ferd
 
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