HunterByrd

A Question of Youth

I cast my first presidential vote in '76. At the time, I was very much a part of the Churchillian model: a fancy free, liberal heart. My eyes were visionary, and I flew swiftly through the months leading up to November upon wings of feel-good social justice. After all, those were the days not long after the Nixonian debacle; "we had to make a change" and rid the world of the rotten vestiges of those times. Enter the soft-spoken, liberal submariner from Plains: Jimmy Carter.

I voted for him. Nothing or no one could dissuade me of my youthful conviction.

I've been sorry since. Check the history. We lost four years of progress in this country, and it took an extraordinary leader in the form of Reagan to eventually get the US back to speed, economically and internationally.

So, as a much older person this time round, I am concerned about the left's 'balls to the walls' effort to 'Get out the vote' (code: Kerry). As sure as I capture these keystrokes, there are millions of youngsters out there who are exactly like I was then. They, too, will eventually see the world more as it is, and make the inevitable Churchillian progression, but only time and experience can bring them to that point...

Young voters are off the radar screen of campaign pollsters. Almost all polls screen for either registered voters or likely voters. Likely voters are some combination of those who say they're likely to vote, have voted before and know where their polling place is. That's not the core, young, traditional nonvoter, who also moves around a lot and uses cell phones that are not part of the random digit dialing system used by pollsters.

So says Jack C. Doppelt, in a Chicago Sun Times article today. Doppelt talks about a 'buzz' that is everywhere -- the 'buzz' being talk of the impending election. He is careful not to offer any blatant predictions, but he writes around the fact that most all of the get-out-the-vote activity, at least that which has enjoyed massive air-time, has been by leftist or left-leaning groups and individuals.

That is not to say that what happens in the campaign doesn't feed and nourish the buzz. It does. The buzz is Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11"; Jon Stewart's "Daily Show"; Al Franken's Air America; Bill Maher's "Real Time"; the daily stream of concert tours, particularly Punk Voter's Rock Against Bush and the Vote For Change tour associated with Bruce Springsteen, both targeted for battleground states only; Leno, Letterman and other talk shows, and a half dozen movies and documentaries.

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We have countless examples of the pop culture buzz getting thousands and hundreds of thousands of young people to zap unexpected life into a reality show or a hot band or even a documentary. If it can happen with "The Apprentice" or Paris Hilton or Michael Moore, it can happen to Election 2004, the year traditionally unplugged nonvoters zap unexpected life into the electorate.

The pollsters are acutely aware of the incredible, volatile potential of the young vote. Perhaps it is taken into account, but if Mr Doppelt's suspicions have 'purchase', then we all may be, as he says, in for a big surprise.